Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1911…5d7d crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-5%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate23%5W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$37
politics 25% −$43
sports 20% −$25
crypto 16% −$8
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-56.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -43.6% -49.0% 40% 40% +2.7%
≤30d 5 -43.6% -49.0% 40% 40% +2.7%
≤90d 7 -48.3% -53.2% 29% 29% -12.6%
all 22 -51.9% -56.5% 23% 14% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.5% 14% -17.0%
10% -60.7% 14% -25.0%
15% -64.5% 9% -32.2%
20% -68.0% 9% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses5 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage609d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $89 −$23 -26%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $66 +$36 +55%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $85 +$22 +26%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $90 −$18 -20%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 16 $2 −$1 -38%
Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight rigged? Nov 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November? Nov 18 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? Nov 13 $12 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in November? Nov 11 $6 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November? Nov 11 $6 $0 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? Nov 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will either candidate concede by Friday? Nov 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Gold close over $3,000 at the end of 2024? Nov 06 $8 −$2 -18%
Ethereum above $2,600 on November 1? Nov 05 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin above $68,000 on November 1? Nov 05 $3 −$3 -100%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Nov 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October? Oct 28 $23 +$15 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 35¢ $14 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 66¢ $65 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 75¢ $75 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 25¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 51¢ $5 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes $2 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 71¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 71¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? SELL No 98¢ $38 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? SELL No 98¢ $15 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? SELL No 98¢ $12 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? SELL No 50¢ $32 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY No 24¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY No 26¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY No 27¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? SELL No 32¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY No 63¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY No 68¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY No 68¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? SELL No 100¢ $107 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? BUY No 79¢ $83 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? BUY No 79¢ $0 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? BUY No 79¢ $2 6h
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 75¢ $17 45d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $17 46d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $6 46d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $6 46d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 46d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $43 46d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $4 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records