Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
19 0x1912…28f6 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+4%) realized +$31 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$20
sports 24% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +15.8% +4.8% 50% 50% +8.1%
≤30d 8 +15.8% +4.8% 50% 50% +8.1%
≤90d 8 +15.8% +4.8% 50% 50% +8.1%
all 8 +15.8% +4.8% 50% 50% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 50% +8.1%
10% -5.3% 38% -2.2%
15% -14.4% 38% -11.7%
20% -22.8% 12% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$485
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $168 $167 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $130 $127 −$3 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $115 $113 −$2 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$12 +232%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$24 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 71¢ $19 28m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $135 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $98 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $161 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 8h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $17 8h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 19h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $484.65 · official $484.65 (match) · 22 history records