Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1914…f421 other 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%26W / 125L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$5
politics 23% −$7
sports 23% −$12
crypto 11% −$11
economics 7% −$3
world 5% −$3
culture 1% −$1
finance 1% −$4
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 24% 0% -9.7%
all 151 -0.1% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses26 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage159d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 10 $41 −$2 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $169 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $320 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $63 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $459 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $161 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 17 $45 $0 -1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $248 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,096 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $291 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 12 $67 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $245 $0 -0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $45 $0 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 10 $128 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $244 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 09 $354 −$2 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $230 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $454 $0 +0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 08 $118 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 08 $448 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 02 $228 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 01 $245 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 31 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $191 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 30 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $631 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $499 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 29 $183 −$4 -2%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 28 $185 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $63 1h
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL No 90¢ $40 7d
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY No 93¢ $41 7d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 20d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $13 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $48 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $48 33d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $52 58d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $52 59d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $41 59d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $41 59d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $65 59d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $66 59d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $44 59d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $44 60d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 60d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $63 60d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 60d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 60d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $47 60d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $47 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 96¢ $48 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 96¢ $48 60d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $41 60d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $41 61d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $49 61d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $49 61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? SELL No 95¢ $45 61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY No 96¢ $45 62d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $49 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.75 · official $62.75 (match) · 674 history records