Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1915…6491 politics 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 31L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$1
world 30% +$1
other 18% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 6% $0
tech 4% +$1
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 27% 0% -9.2%
all 42 -0.1% -9.7% 26% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage334d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $41 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $94 −$1 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $35 +$1 +4%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $86 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $3 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $3 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $61 −$2 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $15 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $44 +$3 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 22 $21 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jul 31 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $3 $0 +6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 27 $20 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Jul 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $69 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will Tadej Pogacar win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 26 $69 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 26 $70 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on July 25? Jul 25 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $76 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 24 $76 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $43 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $46 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $27 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $27 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $35 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $32 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $18 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $24 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $24 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $46 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.50 · official $3.50 (match) · 150 history records