Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:57:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
19 0x1918…06af other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,219 (+43%) realized +$3,157 · open +$62
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days−$200
14 days+$2,695
30 days+$2,295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$478
sports 23% +$2,702
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 +13.5% +2.7% 25% 25% +136.9%
≤90d 7 +1.7% -7.9% 29% 29% +64.0%
all 19 +41.7% +28.2% 37% 37% +30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.2% 37% +30.1%
10% +16.0% 37% +17.7%
15% +4.8% 37% +6.3%
20% -5.5% 37% -4.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +81% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +95% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$997 vs −$322 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$462
Realized+$3,157
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage174d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $200 $255 +$55 (+28%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 43¢ 89¢ $100 $207 +$107 (+107%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Yes 12¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $818 +$2,895 +354%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $410 −$400 -98%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $400 +$633 +158%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-06? Feb 07 $405 +$495 +122%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $403 −$403 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 31 $500 +$631 +126%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Jan 31 $50 +$450 +900%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-26? Jan 26 $300 −$300 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaur Jan 23 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 23 $420 +$580 +138%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 02 $666 +$1,293 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 43¢ $102 1h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 11¢ $103 24h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $102 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 22d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $204 24d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 27d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $206 30d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 31d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 35d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 36d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 44d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 21¢ $409 44d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? BUY No 38¢ $400 73d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 11¢ $300 73d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $900 95d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 15¢ $105 134d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 15¢ $105 134d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-06? BUY Yes 45¢ $405 138d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 27¢ $335 143d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 143d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 143d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 143d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 143d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-31? BUY Yes 16¢ $96 144d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? BUY No 37¢ $300 144d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL Yes 72¢ $1,131 144d
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner BUY Djokovic 10¢ $50 146d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-26? BUY Yes 30¢ $300 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $462.48 · official $461.32 (match) · 43 history records