Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x191d…17fe sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$105 (-2%) realized −$142 · open +$37
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate49%37W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$817now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$162
tech 27% +$73
world 10% +$16
other 7% +$34
crypto 6% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.4% -5.5% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤30d 57 -15.4% -23.5% 60% 35% -10.3%
≤90d 75 -20.9% -28.5% 49% 31% -12.4%
all 75 -20.9% -28.5% 49% 31% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 31% -12.4%
10% -35.3% 17% -20.8%
15% -41.6% 11% -28.4%
20% -47.3% 7% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$817
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses37 / 38
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)75 / 79
History coverage31d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $300 $317 +$17 (+6%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $200 $218 +$18 (+9%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 84¢ 85¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 22 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $400 +$14 +4%
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $502 +$36 +7%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $201 +$16 +8%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $530 +$14 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $50 +$14 +27%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 25 $71 +$59 +84%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Kinoa - Map 2 Winner May 25 $50 +$12 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong May 25 $50 +$16 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe May 25 $100 +$13 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Emilio Nava vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St May 25 $50 +$10 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Brandon Nakashima May 25 $50 +$9 +17%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $50 +$3 +5%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S May 25 $50 +$9 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Rafael Jodar May 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Marton Fucsovics vs Matteo Berrettini May 25 $51 +$27 +54%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar May 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers May 25 $10 −$9 -91%
Roland Garros WTA: Julia Grabher vs Rebecca Sramkova May 25 $50 +$20 +40%
Kosice: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Martin Krumich May 25 $61 −$60 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Patrick Kypson May 25 $152 −$4 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel May 25 $50 +$4 +8%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $170 +$30 +17%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winne May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Shevchenko vs Alex Michelsen May 25 $50 +$12 +24%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winne May 25 $50 +$24 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane May 25 $50 −$50 -99%
Valorant: All Gamers vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - China Evolution Series May 25 $50 +$5 +11%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Entropy (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In May 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka May 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs against All authority - Map 2 Winner May 25 $101 +$20 +20%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs against All authority (BO3) - CCT Europe Serie May 25 $100 +$5 +5%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun May 25 $152 +$85 +56%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Cameroon vs Botswana May 25 $82 −$3 -4%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $70 +$12 +17%
T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zea May 25 $70 −$3 -4%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $60 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $80 +$8 +10%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 24 $60 +$14 +23%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship P May 23 $50 +$10 +20%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner May 23 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 23 $98 $0 -0%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $61 −$60 -99%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 23 $10 −$1 -5%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 23 $16 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 23 $16 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 84¢ $81 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $200 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $205 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $414 28h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 76¢ $101 47h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3d
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $537 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $400 7d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $301 7d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $200 7d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 100¢ $217 22d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 92¢ $201 23d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $544 23d
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $502 23d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 78¢ $50 27d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series SELL Ursa 99¢ $130 27d
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Kinoa - Map 2 Winner SELL BIG Academy 99¢ $62 27d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY Ursa 34¢ $10 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong SELL Jesper de Jong 100¢ $67 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $114 27d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY Ursa 34¢ $10 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Emilio Nava vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli BUY Emilio Nava 57¢ $51 27d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St SELL Phantom 99¢ $60 27d
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Kinoa - Map 2 Winner BUY BIG Academy 80¢ $50 27d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St BUY Phantom 82¢ $50 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Brandon Nakashima SELL Brandon Nakashima 100¢ $59 27d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY Ursa 69¢ $50 27d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C SELL Hanwha Life Esports 99¢ $53 27d
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group S SELL GenOne 100¢ $59 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $817.48 · official $817.48 (match) · 212 history records