Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
19 0x191e…dd9e sports 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,572 (-8%) realized −$1,572 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%43W / 64L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$150est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1,060
14 days−$1,060
30 days−$1,060
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$1,492
sports 45% −$15
other 6% −$343
world 2% −$457
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +2.6% -7.2% 43% 43% -16.5%
≤30d 70 +2.6% -7.2% 43% 43% -16.5%
≤90d 107 -4.2% -13.3% 40% 40% -20.1%
all 107 -4.2% -13.3% 40% 40% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 40% -20.1%
10% -21.6% 39% -27.7%
15% -29.2% 39% -34.7%
20% -36.1% 33% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$145 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,572
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses43 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$150
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 107
History coverage80d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $277 −$277 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $250 +$181 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $534 +$430 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $419 −$419 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $349 −$349 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $108 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $217 −$217 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $610 +$445 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $232 −$232 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $71 +$88 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $260 +$104 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $142 +$232 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $194 +$187 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $199 −$15 -8%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$91 +89%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 +$184 +179%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $196 +$115 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $268 −$237 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $240 −$207 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $391 −$391 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $277 −$253 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $353 +$344 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $404 +$293 +72%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $185 +$86 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$23 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $624 +$298 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $121 +$46 +38%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $153 +$104 +68%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $286 +$204 +71%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 +$459 +446%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $288 +$297 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $277 +$111 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $452 −$452 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $457 −$457 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $363 +$212 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $273 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $104 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $250 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $507 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $27 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $419 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $150 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $200 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $53 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1,055 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $610 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $217 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $232 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $142 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $189 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $126 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $194 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 268 history records