Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:05:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x191f…14db
other · 153 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$17 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses58 / 93
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)151 / 153
History coverage481d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 2 History 151 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 87¢ 75¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? No 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $65 −$2 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $49 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $145 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $54 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $13 −$5 -36%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $50 +$4 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $163 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $282 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $100 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $56 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $64 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $154 +$5 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $21 +$5 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $3 $0 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $6 +$2 +40%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $72 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $72 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $74 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $105 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $147 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $69 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $56 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $74 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $181 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $35 $0 -1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $73 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $70 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% +$12
other 23% −$2
sports 18% −$1
politics 14% +$4
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% +$1
culture 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
weather 1% +$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $15 50m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $16 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $48 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $15 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $31 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $4 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 30h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $48 32h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $47 36h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $48 39h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $3 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $46 43h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $53 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $53 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $52 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $51 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $51 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.5% -11.8% 36% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 31 +8.5% -1.9% 48% 10% -8.8%
≤90d 78 +3.2% -6.6% 40% 4% -9.2%
all 151 +1.4% -8.2% 38% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.0% 3% -17.9%
15% -25.0% 2% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.56 · official $0.00 (match) · 510 history records