trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 25% | 25% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 12 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 58% | 25% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +4.7% | -5.3% | 62% | 31% | -8.9% |
| all | 16 | +2.9% | -6.9% | 62% | 25% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.9% | 25% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -15.8% | 6% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -23.9% | 6% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -31.4% | 0% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $78 | $78 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $58 | $57 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | $26 | $26 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 20 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 20 | $40 | −$3 | -7% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Jun 20 | $60 | −$6 | -9% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 20 | $58 | +$9 | +15% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $9 | +$1 | +13% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 11 | $19 | −$2 | -9% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $9 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? | May 26 | $1 | $0 | -16% |
| LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +39% |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | -21% |
| Zama FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | +6% |