Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
19 0x1924…efe3 weather 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$121 · open −$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%119W / 9L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$99
politics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 91% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 69 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 115 -0.7% -10.2% 97% 0% -9.4%
all 128 -0.6% -10.1% 93% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.91 per $1 lost it wins $3.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$121
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses119 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 130
History coverage121d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? No 100¢ 67¢ $333 $223 −$110 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $338 −$3 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $256 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? Jun 21 $76 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $268 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? Jun 20 $197 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $338 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $337 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $228 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $227 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $307 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 9? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $308 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $201 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $299 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 6? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 6? Jun 06 $206 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $238 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 5? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $276 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $230 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $284 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 2? Jun 03 $290 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $175 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 1? Jun 02 $168 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $66 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $333 53m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $335 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $338 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $250 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $76 30h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $268 40h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $70 44h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $197 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $144 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $338 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $337 4d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $113 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $228 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $143 7d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $109 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $73 8d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 8d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $72 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $227 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $110 9d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $174 10d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $38 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $34 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.22 · official $223.22 (match) · 274 history records