Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x1925…4654
sports · 28 markets active 12h ago
0.0score
+$1,096,395 +70%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,095,125 · open −$32,222
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 10 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75,777
7 days−$457,803
14 days+$553,687
30 days+$1,095,125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 20¢ $2,005 $4,396 +$2,391 (+119%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Yes $14,548 $2,478 −$12,070 (-83%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 14¢ $8,927 $2,269 −$6,658 (-75%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 36¢ 80¢ $917 $2,050 +$1,133 (+124%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 14¢ $6,589 $1,062 −$5,527 (-84%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 32¢ $3,266 $866 −$2,400 (-73%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes $4,796 $699 −$4,097 (-85%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 39¢ 12¢ $2,121 $627 −$1,494 (-70%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 10¢ $3,038 $365 −$2,673 (-88%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 21¢ $1,110 $281 −$829 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $95,301 +$75,777 +80%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-2.5) vs Fonseca (+2.5) Jun 06 $1,377 −$1,376 -100%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) Jun 06 $2,953 −$2,953 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 06 $83,222 −$82,038 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 06 $95,930 −$95,930 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 06 $201,840 −$201,840 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana Jun 06 $149,443 −$149,443 -100%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 03 $908 +$984 +108%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jong (+2.5) Jun 01 $29,149 +$23,720 +81%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $158,395 +$13,766 +9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $247,996 +$151,997 +61%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $49,696 +$531,509 +1070%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $7,102 −$7,088 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 29 $168,185 +$296,602 +176%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $18 +$7 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 27 $62,108 +$91,446 +147%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $100,149 +$103,518 +103%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $32,844 +$45,356 +138%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $52,939 +$301,110 +569%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% +$946,644
other 16% +$149,332
finance 1% −$33,073
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $611 12h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 12h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3,612 12h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $9 12h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $4 12h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $191 12h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 12h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $195 12h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 55¢ $90,675 15h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $52 17h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $4,351 17h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $1,740 18h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $15 18h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $7 18h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $11 18h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 22h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 23h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 23h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $23,904 2d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $110 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $611 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $28 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $22 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $136 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 64¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+80.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -74.1% -76.6% 14% 14% -75.3%
≤30d 19 +99.2% +80.2% 63% 58% +54.8%
≤90d 19 +99.2% +80.2% 63% 58% +54.8%
all 19 +99.2% +80.2% 63% 58% +54.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover138.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +80.2% 58% +54.8%
10% +63.0% 58% +40.0%
15% ← realistic here +47.2% 58% +26.5%
20% +32.8% 53% +14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,093.48 · official $15,093.48 (match) · 3500 history records