Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
19 0x1926…9a82 sports 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$48 (+27%) realized +$47 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%16W / 26L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$33
14 days+$49
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$77
other 35% −$19
crypto 9% −$9
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +14.3% +3.4% 37% 34% +16.4%
≤30d 42 +16.8% +5.7% 38% 36% +24.7%
≤90d 42 +16.8% +5.7% 38% 36% +24.7%
all 42 +16.8% +5.7% 38% 36% +24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 36% +24.7%
10% -4.4% 36% +12.7%
15% -13.7% 33% +1.9%
20% -22.1% 24% -8.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses16 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions16
Markets (closed)42 / 58
History coverage54d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-16%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+300%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Gen.G Global Academy 46¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 30¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 16 $11 $0 -3%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$28 +1343%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +291%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $12 +$1 +10%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 +$8 +81%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $1 $0 +46%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +307%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1 $0 +38%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 $0 +36%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $10 +$9 +86%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $13 +$15 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 2m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $1 7m
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY Gen.G Global Academy 46¢ $1 7m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $1 8m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 25h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 39h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 39h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 39h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.91 · official $33.91 (match) · 143 history records