Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1927…92af crypto 207 markets active 2d ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$280 (-1%) realized −$96 · open −$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%86W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day105.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$27
14 days+$4
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$503
politics 2% +$42
world 2% +$379
finance 1% −$220
other 1% −$92
weather 0% −$40
tech 0% −$3
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +25.1% +13.2% 50% 50% +11.9%
≤30d 193 -10.0% -18.5% 45% 44% -11.1%
≤90d 193 -10.0% -18.5% 45% 44% -11.1%
all 193 -10.0% -18.5% 45% 44% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 44% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 39% -19.6%
15% -33.4% 24% -27.3%
20% -40.0% 15% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$56 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$184
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses86 / 107
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)193 / 207
History coverage26d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day105.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $69 $35 −$35 (-50%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $27 $20 −$7 (-27%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $26 $16 −$10 (-40%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-74%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 68¢ 3¢ $78 $3 −$75 (-96%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-62%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-73%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-90%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $14 $1 −$14 (-95%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-93%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-54%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$26 +108%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 18 $20 +$60 +300%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $7 +$3 +43%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $34 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET Jun 10 $44 +$28 +63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 10 $65 −$64 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $9 −$8 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $12 +$8 +62%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$95 +1827%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 06 $60 +$40 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $89 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 05 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2PM ET Jun 05 $84 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4PM ET Jun 04 $80 +$20 +25%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 03 $51 +$42 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 03 $38 +$53 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 03 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2PM ET Jun 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 03 $27 −$26 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $185 +$115 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10AM ET Jun 02 $40 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $121 +$83 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $66 −$63 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 02 $79 +$121 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 02 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $198 −$193 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $384 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 40h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 40h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 2d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 81¢ $80 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 8¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 39¢ $2 8d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 39¢ $2 8d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 8d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 8d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 8d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $1 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $1 9d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 1¢ $0 9d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 1¢ $0 9d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 1¢ $1 9d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 1¢ $0 9d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 1¢ $0 9d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 1¢ $0 9d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 1¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.32 · official $89.32 (match) · 2886 history records