Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:29:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
19 0x1928…b9f2 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 675d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$778 (+65%) realized +$782 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$1,008
14 days+$1,008
30 days+$1,008
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$785
sports 34% +$214
crypto 3% −$40
weather 3% −$6
politics 3% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.8% -3.3% 30% 30% +119.7%
≤30d 10 +6.8% -3.3% 30% 30% +119.7%
≤90d 10 +6.8% -3.3% 30% 30% +119.7%
all 14 -9.8% -18.4% 29% 29% +104.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 29% +104.1%
10% -26.2% 29% +84.5%
15% -33.3% 29% +66.7%
20% -39.9% 29% +50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +143% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +126% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$303 vs −$22 · ×13.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.38 per $1 lost it wins $5.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

675d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized+$782
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage675d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 +$19 +369%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 0.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0. Jun 27 $200 +$216 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 27? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 27? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 27? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 27? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $325 +$948 +291%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $30 +$28 +95%
Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 23? Aug 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl? Aug 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum above $2,500 on August 23? Aug 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $295.68 · official $295.68 (match) · 23 history records