trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 38% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 38% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 23 | +3.5% | -6.3% | 52% | 4% | -4.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.3% | 4% | -4.8% |
| 10% | -15.3% | 4% | -13.9% |
| 15% | -23.5% | 4% | -22.2% |
| 20% | -31.0% | 4% | -29.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 20 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 27 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $60 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 26 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 26 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 25 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in March? | Apr 03 | $1 | −$1 | -46% |
| Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? | Mar 30 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? | Mar 29 | $42 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? | Mar 26 | $42 | $0 | +1% |
| Will another coalition form the next German Government? | Mar 24 | $1 | $0 | -12% |
| Will "The Brutalist" win Best Production Design at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 21 | $3 | −$2 | -76% |
| Will "Conclave" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 21 | $14 | +$28 | +203% |
| Will "A Real Pain" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 02 | $14 | $0 | -2% |
| MD Eastern Shore vs. Coppin State | Mar 02 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will "Nosferatu" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 02 | $4 | $0 | +0% |