Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
19 0x192b…2999 world 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26 (+5%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% $0
other 16% $0
crypto 8% $0
politics 8% $0
culture 6% +$26
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.4%
all 23 +3.5% -6.3% 52% 4% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 4% -4.8%
10% -15.3% 4% -13.9%
15% -23.5% 4% -22.2%
20% -31.0% 4% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.72 per $1 lost it wins $8.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage475d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $60 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in March? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -46%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Mar 30 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $42 $0 +1%
Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? Mar 26 $42 $0 +1%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 24 $1 $0 -12%
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Production Design at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 21 $3 −$2 -76%
Will "Conclave" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 21 $14 +$28 +203%
Will "A Real Pain" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $14 $0 -2%
MD Eastern Shore vs. Coppin State Mar 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will "Nosferatu" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $46 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $46 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $17 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $17 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $13 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $34 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $47 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $14 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $47 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $4 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $25 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $14 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $42 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $47 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $47 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $47 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $47 26d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 353d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records