Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
19 0x192b…4e06 crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+3%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$49
14 days+$41
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$42
crypto 45% −$44
politics 7% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.3%
≤30d 17 -13.4% -21.6% 59% 47% -7.1%
≤90d 17 -13.4% -21.6% 59% 47% -7.1%
all 17 -13.4% -21.6% 59% 47% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 47% -7.1%
10% -29.1% 47% -16.0%
15% -36.0% 41% -24.1%
20% -42.2% 18% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage17d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $18 +$7 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$12 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 +$11 +50%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $14 +$8 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$6 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 04 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records