Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x192b…9048 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$8
other 36% −$10
sports 10% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-53.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -48.5% -53.4% 30% 20% -37.8%
≤30d 10 -48.5% -53.4% 30% 20% -37.8%
≤90d 10 -48.5% -53.4% 30% 20% -37.8%
all 10 -48.5% -53.4% 30% 20% -37.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.4% 20% -37.8%
10% -57.9% 20% -43.7%
15% -62.0% 20% -49.2%
20% -65.7% 20% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$13 +60%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.41 · official $9.44 (match) · 20 history records