Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1930…4ac0 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate34%27W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$1
other 24% −$2
politics 14% −$13
sports 11% $0
crypto 5% −$4
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 29 -1.7% -11.1% 31% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 70 -1.9% -11.3% 36% 1% -9.5%
all 80 -3.3% -12.5% 34% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 1% -10.0%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses27 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)80 / 84
History coverage541d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 44¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 34¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $30 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $28 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $27 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $27 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $38 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $151 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $81 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $9 −$1 -17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $12 −$2 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $34 +$4 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $28 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $90 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $63 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $55 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $28 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $79 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $30 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $28 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $84 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $60 −$1 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3 $0 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $26 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $30 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $30 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $27 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $27 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $30 44h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $27 44h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $3 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $27 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $27 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $30 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $27 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $9 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $18 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $31 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $25 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $2 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $27 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $9 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $22 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $24 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.73 · official $26.40 · 328 history records