Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1930…f39a other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$1
world 21% −$2
politics 12% $0
sports 11% $0
finance 8% +$1
crypto 8% $0
culture 4% +$1
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 0% -9.4%
all 35 +0.0% -9.5% 37% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -9.2%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage272d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $27 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 10 $6 $0 -0%
James Comey arrested by October 31? Oct 09 $1 $0 -12%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 30 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 27 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $1 $0 +6%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $2 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 26 $2 $0 +9%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $5 $0 -2%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 23 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 22 $2 $0 -4%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $8 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $2 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $10 13h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $6 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $21 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $27 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $12 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $13 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $26 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 24d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $12 250d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $12 251d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $7 251d
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 99¢ $5 251d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $7 251d
James Comey arrested by October 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 251d
James Comey arrested by October 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 251d
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 99¢ $1 251d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $21 260d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 261d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 261d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 261d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 261d
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 261d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $19 261d
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $6 261d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.11 · official $29.11 (match) · 143 history records