Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:57:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x193c…6eba
other · 15 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$221 -38%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$254 · open +$32
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$151
Realized−$254
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Open positions62
Markets (closed)7 / 15
History coverage38d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 62 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 28¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+615%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 24¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+537%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+407%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 19¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+394%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $2 $8 +$7 (+355%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+329%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+303%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $2 $7 +$6 (+303%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+277%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+225%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+199%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+173%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+95%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+95%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+86%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+60%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+36%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 06 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 06 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 30m
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 58m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.11 · official $151.16 (match) · 319 history records