Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1940…0ea1 other 62 markets active 8h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$738 (+6%) realized −$277 · open +$1,015
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate95%18W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day61.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$8,493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$1,017
sports 33% −$1,076
world 7% +$438
politics 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +14.3% +3.4% 95% 42% -19.1%
≤30d 19 +14.3% +3.4% 95% 42% -19.1%
≤90d 19 +14.3% +3.4% 95% 42% -19.1%
all 19 +14.3% +3.4% 95% 42% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.4% 42% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -6.4% 26% -26.9%
15% -15.5% 21% -33.9%
20% -23.8% 16% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$1,495 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$8,493
Realized−$277
Unrealized+$1,015
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses18 / 1
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions45
Markets (closed)19 / 62
History coverage2d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day61.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 8¢ 66¢ $115 $990 +$875 (+758%)
Will BABYBAY win the Masters London MVP No 100¢ 100¢ $612 $612 +$1 (+0%)
Will SpiritZ1 win the Masters London MVP No 100¢ 100¢ $583 $583 −$0 (-0%)
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 8¢ 34¢ $115 $514 +$398 (+345%)
Will brawk win the Masters London MVP No 100¢ 99¢ $488 $485 −$3 (-1%)
Will Crws win the Masters London MVP No 100¢ 99¢ $481 $478 −$3 (-1%)
Will Killua win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 99¢ $390 $390 +$0 (+0%)
Will WsLeo win the Masters London MVP No 100¢ 100¢ $363 $363 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jieni7 win the Masters London MVP No 100¢ 66¢ $501 $332 −$169 (-34%)
Will valyn win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 99¢ $324 $324 −$0 (-0%)
Will koshmaras win the Masters London MVP No 100¢ 100¢ $306 $307 +$1 (+0%)
Will KROSTALY win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $283 $284 +$2 (+1%)
Will RieNs win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $234 $235 +$1 (+0%)
Will Rarga win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $234 $235 +$1 (+0%)
Will NoMan win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $208 $209 +$1 (+0%)
Will Nicc win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $204 $205 +$1 (+0%)
Will JitBoyS win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $196 $197 +$1 (+0%)
Will PatMen win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $194 $195 +$1 (+0%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $187 $192 +$5 (+3%)
Will sociablEE win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 99¢ $163 $163 −$0 (-0%)
Will jawgemo win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $162 $163 +$1 (+1%)
Will xavi8k win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $147 $148 +$1 (+1%)
Will benjyfishy win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $129 $130 +$1 (+1%)
Will Life win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 99¢ $129 $129 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lysoar win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $124 $125 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $465 +$305 +66%
Will MrBeast say "Minecraft" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will NoMan have the highest ACS at Masters London 2026 Jun 20 $47 $0 +1%
Will RieNs have the highest ACS at Masters London 2026 Jun 20 $47 $0 +1%
Will Boo have the highest ACS at Masters London 2026 Jun 20 $79 +$1 +1%
Will benjyfishy have the highest ACS at Masters London 2026 Jun 20 $79 +$1 +1%
Will koshmaras have the highest ACS at Masters London 2026 Jun 20 $79 +$1 +1%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $150 +$100 +66%
Will Life have the highest ACS at Masters London 2026 Jun 20 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Crws have the highest ACS at Masters London 2026 Jun 20 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Flex1n have the highest ACS at Masters London 2026 Jun 20 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Leviathan have the highest ACS at Masters London 2026 Jun 20 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $382 +$117 +31%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 20 $338 +$53 +16%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 19 $127 +$16 +12%
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 19 $3,334 −$1,495 -45%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $98 +$11 +11%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 19 $220 +$110 +50%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $247 +$141 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crws win the Masters London MVP BUY No 100¢ $437 7h
Will SpiritZ1 win the Masters London MVP BUY No 100¢ $402 8h
Will SpiritZ1 win the Masters London MVP BUY No 100¢ $100 8h
Will SpiritZ1 win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $34 8h
Will Jieni7 win the Masters London MVP BUY No 100¢ $501 9h
Will SpiritZ1 win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $48 9h
Will brawk win the Masters London MVP BUY No 100¢ $275 10h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 19¢ $38 11h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 19¢ $117 11h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 19¢ $118 11h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 19¢ $114 11h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 19¢ $56 11h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 12h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 13h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 13h
Will koshmaras win the Masters London MVP BUY No 100¢ $192 13h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 14h
Will BABYBAY win the Masters London MVP BUY No 100¢ $498 14h
Will MrBeast say "Minecraft" during his next gaming YouTube video? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 15h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 15h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 15h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 18¢ $229 15h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 16¢ $51 15h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 25¢ $44 15h
Will nobody win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $24 16h
Will CHICHOO win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $24 16h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 16h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,493.03 · official $8,199.88 · 182 history records