Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
19 0x1940…45b2 other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,794 (+42%) realized +$2,876 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$751now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$486
7 days+$2,803
14 days+$2,803
30 days+$2,803
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$2,757
sports 3% +$4
crypto 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 50% +34.5%
≤30d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 50% +34.5%
≤90d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 50% +34.5%
all 12 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 50% +34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 50% +34.5%
10% -17.6% 50% +21.6%
15% -25.6% 50% +9.9%
20% -32.9% 25% -0.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$592 vs −$124 · ×4.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.76 per $1 lost it wins $4.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$751
Realized+$2,876
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)12 / 25
History coverage15d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $588 $544 −$44 (-7%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 34¢ 35¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 49¢ 32¢ $80 $51 −$29 (-36%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$5 -52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $31 +$48 +157%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,212 +$597 +49%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $61 +$40 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,082 +$2,235 +107%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,503 +$583 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL 13¢ $5 7m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $30 47m
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR BUY 2¢ $3 58m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR BUY 3¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 27¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR BUY 3¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 7h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR BUY 4¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $31 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 46¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 2d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $751.31 · official $763.00 · 65 history records