Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x1941…2560
crypto · 832 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$151 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$209 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses777 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)832 / 832
History coverage25d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 832 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$13
14 days−$64
30 days−$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $59 −$1 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 14 $17 −$2 -11%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 14 $13 −$1 -11%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -5%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 14 $12 −$1 -9%
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be between 170 and 180 Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be between 150 and 160 Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 12 $2 −$1 -80%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 12 $3 $0 -16%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 04 $9 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 04 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 04 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 04 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 04 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 04 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 04 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 04 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 04 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 04 $19 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 04 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 04 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 03 $60 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 03 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 03 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 03 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 03 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 03 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 03 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 03 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 03 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$201
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$3
other 0% −$2
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 21m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $22 1h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $22 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $18 2h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 2h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 2h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 3h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $12 3h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 17¢ $11 3h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 11h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 11h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -16.2% -24.2% 0% 0% -14.5%
≤30d 832 -0.9% -10.3% 93% 1% -10.6%
≤90d 832 -0.9% -10.3% 93% 1% -10.6%
all 832 -0.9% -10.3% 93% 1% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 1% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 1% -19.2%
15% -26.8% 1% -27.0%
20% -33.9% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1933 history records