Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
19 0x1941…deea weather 474 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (189 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,922 (+32%) realized +$9,915 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate36%168W / 302L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day188.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$579
other 1% +$4
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (189 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 251 -23.2% -30.5% 31% 20% -1.3%
≤30d 470 -12.5% -20.9% 36% 25% -7.0%
≤90d 470 -12.5% -20.9% 36% 25% -7.0%
all 470 -12.5% -20.9% 36% 25% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover188.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 25% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 19% -15.9%
15% -35.3% 15% -24.0%
20% -41.7% 13% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$13 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$9,915
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses168 / 302
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)470 / 474
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$65
Trades / day188.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $4 $7 +$4 (+102%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+175%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $194 +$255 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $188 −$94 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $37 +$7 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$12 +228%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 −$16 -58%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -92%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $79 +$21 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $158 +$232 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$10 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$45 +269%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$6 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$3 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $170 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$13 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $199 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$156 +638%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $81 −$75 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$5 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$192 +518%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$9 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 −$24 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 −$15 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$64 +2256%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$8 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $125 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $33 12m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $32 13m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 28¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 16¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $19 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 96¢ $19 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $19 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 93¢ $19 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 92¢ $18 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 91¢ $18 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 90¢ $43 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 89¢ $18 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 88¢ $18 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 87¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 86¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 85¢ $18 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.17 · official $51.23 (match) · 3500 history records