Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1942…28cd world 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%20W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$3
other 25% +$3
sports 4% −$1
crypto 1% $0
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 30 -5.0% -14.0% 23% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 37 -1.7% -11.1% 30% 3% -9.7%
all 55 -0.6% -10.1% 36% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 4% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage491d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $48 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $36 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $24 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $101 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $74 +$2 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $27 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $55 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -12%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $89 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $84 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $190 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $90 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $45 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $39 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $27 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $43 +$3 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $158 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $39 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $2 $0 -6%
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $14 $0 +2%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 04 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 50-51°F on February 26? Mar 04 $14 $0 -3%
South Dakota vs. North Dakota State Feb 25 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $39 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $39 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $10 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $21 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 34h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $35 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $36 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $24 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $41 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $41 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $12 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.73 · official $0.00 (match) · 224 history records