Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:35:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
19 0x1943…8b37 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$49 (-25%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$4
sports 29% −$57
crypto 25% +$11
finance 6% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 1 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤90d 6 +6.8% -3.3% 50% 50% -48.1%
all 19 +12.6% +1.8% 47% 47% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 47% -34.3%
10% -7.9% 42% -40.6%
15% -16.8% 42% -46.4%
20% -25.0% 26% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage106d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $78 −$4 -5%
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos Apr 30 $58 −$57 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 13 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 05 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 29 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 29 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 28 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 28 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 28 $2 +$5 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 28 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 28 $5 +$11 +226%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 28 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 28 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $74 1h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $21 1h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $52 2h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $5 2h
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos BUY Valencia 56¢ $58 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $5 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $7 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 93d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL Yes 72¢ $5 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records