Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1947…7689 crypto 207 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%200W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$19
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -2.6% -11.9% 96% 1% -10.3%
≤30d 207 -1.6% -11.0% 97% 1% -9.8%
≤90d 207 -1.6% -11.0% 97% 1% -9.8%
all 207 -1.6% -11.0% 97% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 1% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses200 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)207 / 207
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 207 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $90 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $29 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET Jun 24 $40 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $60 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $14 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $60 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $29 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 490 history records