Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:03:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x194a…b8a9 world 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% $0
other 34% −$4
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 18% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 18% 0% -9.4%
all 20 -4.0% -13.2% 35% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 5% -10.1%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage471d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $41 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $58 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 20 $14 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $45 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 4h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 8h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $15 10h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $38 11h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $3 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $7 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $45 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $45 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $46 43h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $46 46h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $23 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $45 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $17 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $17 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $41 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $41 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $3 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $38 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records