Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x194e…8ca5 crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate59%70W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$35
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$62
other 31% −$166
sports 9% +$73
world 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +1.8% -7.9% 59% 50% -8.9%
≤30d 69 +17.6% +6.4% 51% 45% -7.8%
≤90d 119 +5.4% -4.6% 59% 37% -11.4%
all 119 +5.4% -4.6% 59% 37% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 37% -11.4%
10% -13.8% 28% -19.9%
15% -22.1% 22% -27.6%
20% -29.7% 18% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses70 / 49
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage52d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$14 +55%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $30 +$5 +18%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $25 +$14 +56%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $41 +$28 +70%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $25 +$12 +48%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $41 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +11%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +18%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $20 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$7 +27%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $3 +$11 +364%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $6 +$9 +153%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 +$12 +226%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$18 +174%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $13 −$3 -26%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 +$15 +148%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 $0 -4%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$19 -64%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $29 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $32 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? SELL Yes 95¢ $36 19h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 19h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? SELL Yes 93¢ $39 22h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 22h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? SELL Yes 90¢ $69 47h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 47h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 47h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 47h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 89¢ $38 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $56 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 238 history records