Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
19 0x1953…eacc crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+22%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%34W / 22L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$42
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$41
other 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +24.3% +12.5% 63% 63% +13.5%
≤30d 56 +19.6% +8.3% 61% 61% +11.5%
≤90d 56 +19.6% +8.3% 61% 61% +11.5%
all 56 +19.6% +8.3% 61% 61% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.3% 61% +11.5%
10% -2.1% 59% +0.8%
15% -11.6% 55% -8.9%
20% -20.2% 48% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses34 / 22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$6 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$3 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$10 +309%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.76 · official $29.76 (match) · 103 history records