Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
19 0x1955…b54c world 10 markets active 19h ago coverage 111d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$702 (+3%) realized +$601 · open +$101
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,535per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$5,689now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$117
14 days+$281
30 days+$480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$522
economics 24% +$122
other 15% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.5% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.0%
≤30d 4 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 0% -6.3%
≤90d 6 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 0% -6.8%
all 7 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 0% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 0% -15.7%
15% -23.8% 0% -23.8%
20% -31.3% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$5,689
Realized+$601
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage111d
Avg bet$2,535
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $2,648 $2,709 +$60 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,984 $1,989 +$5 (+0%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $956 $991 +$35 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $980 +$20 +2%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $3,176 +$97 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3,118 +$164 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $6,259 +$199 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $6,026 +$117 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $105 +$1 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $15 19h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $59 19h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 22h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $43 2d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $49 2d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $42 2d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $39 2d
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $45 2d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $126 3d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 3d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $93 3d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $147 3d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $217 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $144 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $0 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $0 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $188 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $0 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $124 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $124 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $198 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $0 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,688.73 · official $5,688.73 (match) · 53 history records