trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +10.0% | -0.4% | 100% | 0% | -0.4% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +6.9% | -3.2% | 100% | 0% | -3.2% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 87% | 13% | -6.3% |
| all | 15 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 87% | 13% | -6.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.8% | 13% | -6.3% |
| 10% | -19.3% | 0% | -15.3% |
| 15% | -27.1% | 0% | -23.5% |
| 20% | -34.3% | 0% | -31.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 96¢ | $49 | $49 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 21 | $21 | +$2 | +10% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | Jun 05 | $21 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | May 21 | $21 | $0 | -2% |
| Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? | May 20 | $20 | +$2 | +8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 17 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | May 15 | $19 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? | May 13 | $18 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3? | Apr 29 | $2 | −$2 | -94% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Apr 29 | $2 | $0 | +18% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Apr 29 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Apr 29 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 29 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Mar 30 | $3 | $0 | +5% |
| US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? | Mar 30 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 | Mar 30 | $5 | +$1 | +17% |