Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
19 0x195d…0a8b other 103 markets active 1d ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,308 (-10%) realized −$1,308 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%44W / 59L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$1,286
14 days−$1,286
30 days−$1,286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$203
crypto 29% −$1,241
sports 19% −$172
tech 4% +$236
finance 2% +$53
world 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +6.2% -3.9% 39% 37% -19.0%
≤30d 90 +6.2% -3.9% 39% 37% -19.0%
≤90d 90 +6.2% -3.9% 39% 37% -19.0%
all 103 +11.2% +0.6% 43% 39% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 39% -18.9%
10% -9.0% 32% -26.7%
15% -17.8% 25% -33.7%
20% -25.9% 20% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$78 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,308
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses44 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage121d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $129 −$42 -33%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $76 −$19 -24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $317 −$145 -46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $192 −$52 -27%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $121 +$23 +19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $770 −$477 -62%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$10 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $72 +$10 +14%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $132 +$103 +78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 −$3 -6%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $51 −$36 -72%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $136 +$49 +36%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $201 +$24 +12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$8 +28%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$6 +18%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $521 −$415 -80%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $202 −$25 -12%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $702 −$206 -29%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $79 −$78 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $91 +$30 +33%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $20 −$7 -33%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $36 +$11 +30%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $81 −$12 -15%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 +$7 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,301 −$898 -69%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $356 −$5 -2%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 13 $31 +$52 +170%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $273 −$7 -2%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $36 −$7 -18%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $154 −$10 -6%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $343 +$150 +44%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $187 +$6 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Endrick: 2+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $87 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $58 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $76 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $172 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $56 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $52 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $105 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $105 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $133 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $144 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $91 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $75 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $41 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $80 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $242 3d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $235 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $252 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 34¢ $107 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $112 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $46 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $25 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 SELL Over 60¢ $48 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 348 history records