Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1962…4bab world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$1
other 18% −$4
sports 10% +$14
weather 9% −$4
politics 7% +$12
crypto 6% −$3
economics 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -7.2% -16.0% 0% 0% -14.1%
≤30d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 30% 0% -10.9%
all 30 -1.1% -10.5% 43% 10% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 10% -7.8%
10% -19.1% 10% -16.6%
15% -26.9% 10% -24.7%
20% -34.1% 10% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage478d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 79¢ 79¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $24 −$3 -12%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $57 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $18 −$1 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $23 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $41 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum above $2,000 on April 4? Apr 04 $4 −$4 -82%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Apr 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? Apr 03 $29 $0 +0%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Apr 03 $33 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 30 $33 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $30 $0 -1%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Norfolk State vs. Florida Mar 20 $2 +$1 +91%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Mar 19 $23 +$12 +52%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 5? Mar 03 $23 $0 +0%
Coastal Carolina vs. Southern Mississippi Mar 03 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 3? Mar 03 $26 −$4 -15%
Memphis vs. UTSA Mar 03 $26 $0 +0%
Utah State vs. Colorado State Mar 03 $14 +$12 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $50 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 8h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 14¢ $0 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $17 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $18 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $5 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $16 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $7 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $21 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $5 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $26 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $12 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $7 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $8 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $18 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $26 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $16 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $12 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $16 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $16 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $17 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.77 · official $49.77 (match) · 98 history records