Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:15:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x1963…dd0c
other · 75 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$27,785 +32%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27,724 · open +$61
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$3,117
Realized+$27,724
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions55
Markets (closed)21 / 75
History coverage109d
Avg bet$1,144
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit28%
Chart Positions 55 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,434
7 days−$7,434
14 days−$7,434
30 days−$7,448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $1,258 $1,223 −$35 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $258 $254 −$4 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $53 $187 +$134 (+250%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $171 $170 −$1 (-0%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $144 $137 −$7 (-5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $138 $136 −$3 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $120 $121 +$1 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $87 $79 −$8 (-9%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $52 $51 −$1 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes $37 $36 −$2 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $33 $30 −$3 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $33 $30 −$3 (-10%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $0 −$6,422 -5633012%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,094 −$1,078 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $161 −$158 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $398 +$651 +164%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $919 +$385 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $501 −$501 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 29 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 08 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 08 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 08 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 30? Apr 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 02 $8,883 −$2,535 -28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 02 $34,755 +$28,412 +82%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 02 $16,778 +$5,801 +35%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 02 $3,073 +$7,106 +231%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 27 $15,766 −$3,614 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 74% +$38,786
finance 18% −$3,614
other 7% −$939
sports 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 19m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $201 20m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 24m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 25m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 43m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 46m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 56m
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 58m
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 58m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $95 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $24 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -49.3% -54.1% 25% 25% -36.7%
≤30d 11 -63.1% -66.6% 18% 18% -37.0%
≤90d 16 -43.4% -48.8% 25% 25% -36.9%
all 21 -19.0% -26.7% 33% 33% +27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 33% +27.9%
10% -33.7% 33% +15.6%
15% ← realistic here -40.1% 24% +4.5%
20% -46.0% 19% -5.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,116.85 · official $3,116.75 (match) · 3500 history records