trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Jun 12 | $0 | −$6,422 | -5633012% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1,094 | −$1,078 | -99% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $161 | −$158 | -98% |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $59 | −$59 | -100% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $97 | −$97 | -100% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $398 | +$651 | +164% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $919 | +$385 | +42% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $157 | −$157 | -100% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $501 | −$501 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 29 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) | May 29 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? | May 29 | $5 | −$4 | -97% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? | May 08 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET | May 08 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET | May 08 | $5 | +$2 | +30% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 30? | Apr 15 | $1 | +$1 | +79% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? | Mar 02 | $8,883 | −$2,535 | -28% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | Mar 02 | $34,755 | +$28,412 | +82% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | Mar 02 | $16,778 | +$5,801 | +35% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? | Mar 02 | $3,073 | +$7,106 | +231% |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? | Feb 27 | $15,766 | −$3,614 | -23% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -49.3% | -54.1% | 25% | 25% | -36.7% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -63.1% | -66.6% | 18% | 18% | -37.0% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -43.4% | -48.8% | 25% | 25% | -36.9% |
| all | 21 | -19.0% | -26.7% | 33% | 33% | +27.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -26.7% | 33% | +27.9% |
| 10% | -33.7% | 33% | +15.6% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -40.1% | 24% | +4.5% |
| 20% | -46.0% | 19% | -5.8% |