Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:00:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1967…4d21 crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$20 (+3%) realized +$36 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%23W / 26L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day94.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$36
sports 10% +$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -15.0% -23.1% 47% 45% +6.9%
≤30d 49 -15.0% -23.1% 47% 45% +6.9%
≤90d 49 -15.0% -23.1% 47% 45% +6.9%
all 49 -15.0% -23.1% 47% 45% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 45% +6.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 41% -3.3%
15% -37.2% 37% -12.6%
20% -43.3% 27% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day94.0
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 51¢ 36¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$14 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -96%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will Switzerland w Jun 18 $41 +$119 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$17 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$20 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$11 +208%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $15 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.41 · official $21.85 · 98 history records