Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1968…3efb other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$42
sports 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -39.6% -45.3% 33% 28% -7.2%
≤30d 18 -39.6% -45.3% 33% 28% -7.2%
≤90d 18 -39.6% -45.3% 33% 28% -7.2%
all 18 -39.6% -45.3% 33% 28% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.3% 28% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -50.5% 28% -16.0%
15% -55.3% 17% -24.2%
20% -59.7% 11% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×4.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage2d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 66¢ 81¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+24%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 78¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,483 +$60 +4%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $3 +$3 +109%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$2 -55%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $6 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +80%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -69%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $8 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $3 7m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $3 21m
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 88¢ $3 21m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 22m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 25m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 26¢ $2 49m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 50m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,543 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,482 2h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes $1 3h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $1 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 3h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 25h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 26h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 26h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 31¢ $5 26h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 26h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 36¢ $5 27h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 27h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.53 · official $22.40 · 44 history records