Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:15:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
19 0x1968…bef8 other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%29W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$42
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$19
sports 32% +$1
crypto 3% −$30
weather 0% +$12
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +15.7% +4.7% 42% 42% -1.9%
≤30d 63 +3.3% -6.5% 46% 41% -7.0%
≤90d 63 +3.3% -6.5% 46% 41% -7.0%
all 63 +3.3% -6.5% 46% 41% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 41% -7.0%
10% -15.5% 40% -15.9%
15% -23.6% 38% -24.0%
20% -31.1% 29% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses29 / 34
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage12d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+14%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $11 −$4 -34%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$68 +66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $91 +$42 +46%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $71 +$39 +54%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$45 -44%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$15 -71%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 +$25 +42%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$22 +74%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $25 −$19 -75%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4 −$2 -40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 −$33 -41%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$38 -94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$3 -55%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$42 +104%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$23 +1116%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $63 −$32 -50%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $69 −$68 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 17 $5 +$12 +222%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$15 +51%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $40 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 56¢ $7 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $19 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 25h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $50 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 44h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 48¢ $33 47h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 47h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 41¢ $23 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.25 · official $23.25 (match) · 144 history records