Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1969…edd3 other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 245L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$32
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$43
sports 26% −$23
culture 7% −$7
politics 6% −$5
economics 6% −$5
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 168 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage142d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $136 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $220 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $707 −$2 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $193 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $71 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $632 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,102 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $410 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $662 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $437 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $383 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $390 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $320 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $900 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $495 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $214 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $232 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $511 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $338 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $237 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $691 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $441 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $239 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $159 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $298 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $415 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $59 34m
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $59 1h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 3h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $60 4h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $60 10h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $60 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $60 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $60 15h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 19h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 20h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 22h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 23h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $10 25h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $10 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $60 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $60 30h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $60 37h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $60 39h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 40h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 41h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 46h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1449 history records