Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x196d…9688
crypto · 857 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$71 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$130 · open −$42
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$105
Realized+$130
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses559 / 273
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)832 / 857
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day74.3
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 25 History 832 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$10
14 days−$81
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? Yes 68¢ 87¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+28%)
Will Ben Midgley win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 95¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 68¢ 52¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June? No 86¢ 56¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 72¢ 46¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 84¢ 48¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Megaquake by June 30? Yes 51¢ 6¢ $19 $2 −$17 (-87%)
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Yes 19¢ 7¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 77¢ 32¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-58%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 70¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? No 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 40¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-84%)
Will Trump say "Regarded" in June? Yes 71¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Yes 47¢ 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 13 $10 +$2 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +152%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 49% −$32
other 20% −$69
world 18% +$231
weather 9% −$39
politics 5% $0
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 3m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 9m
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 53m
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele SELL Yes 91¢ $13 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 502 -5.6% -14.6% 70% 46% -10.3%
≤30d 832 -3.6% -12.8% 67% 49% -4.8%
≤90d 832 -3.6% -12.8% 67% 49% -4.8%
all 832 -3.6% -12.8% 67% 49% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover74.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 49% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 32% -13.9%
15% -28.7% 18% -22.2%
20% -35.7% 12% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.05 · official $105.05 (match) · 1874 history records