Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1972…5821 crypto 541 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (741 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$419 (+7%) realized +$419 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%241W / 631L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day741.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (741 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 872 -41.5% -47.1% 28% 24% -48.6%
≤30d 872 -41.5% -47.1% 28% 24% -48.6%
≤90d 872 -41.5% -47.1% 28% 24% -48.6%
all 872 -41.5% -47.1% 28% 24% -48.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover741.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.1% 24% -48.6%
10% ← realistic here -52.2% 18% -53.5%
15% -56.8% 13% -58.0%
20% -61.0% 10% -62.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -94% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$419
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses241 / 631
Open positions0
Markets (closed)872 / 541
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day741.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 872 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$9 +830%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$5 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records