Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:51:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

19 0x1973…3dff politics 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate18%4W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$222per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$0

7 days+$0

14 days+$0

30 days−$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-17.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	3	-0.0%	-9.5%	67%	0%	-9.6%
≤90d	6	+0.0%	-9.5%	67%	0%	-9.5%
all	22	-9.2%	-17.9%	18%	0%	-10.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.9%	0%	-10.0%
10%	-25.7%	0%	-18.6%
15%	-32.9%	0%	-26.5%
20%	-39.5%	0%	-33.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -9% → late -9% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized−$25

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)18%

Wins / losses4 / 18

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage123d

Avg bet$222

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 21?	No	100¢	98¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 May 25-31?	Jun 15	$6	$0	+0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	May 29	$11	$0	-0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	May 29	$7	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 April 13-19?	Apr 23	$8	$0	+0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?	Apr 16	$10	$0	+0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Mar 18	$15	$0	-0%
76ers vs. Hawks	Mar 07	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Mar 03	$14	$0	-1%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Feb 27	$385	$0	-0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Feb 26	$341	−$1	-0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Feb 26	$345	$0	-0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Feb 26	$331	−$1	-0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Feb 25	$395	$0	-0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Feb 25	$386	$0	-0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Feb 25	$715	−$1	-0%
Spurs vs. Raptors	Feb 25	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Feb 14	$350	−$1	-0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Feb 14	$357	$0	-0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Feb 13	$353	$0	-0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Feb 13	$328	$0	-0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Feb 12	$379	−$1	-0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Feb 12	$337	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 21?	BUY No	100¢	$5	1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 May 25-31?	BUY No	100¢	$6	16d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$11	16d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$11	17d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$7	53d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 April 13-19?	BUY No	100¢	$8	60d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$10	89d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$15	89d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$15	95d
76ers vs. Hawks	BUY 76ers	32¢	$3	99d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL No	98¢	$13	104d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$385	107d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$385	107d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL No	99¢	$340	108d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	99¢	$341	109d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$345	109d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$345	109d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$331	109d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$331	109d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL No	99¢	$394	109d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	99¢	$395	110d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	99¢	$385	110d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	99¢	$386	110d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$367	110d
Spurs vs. Raptors	BUY Raptors	30¢	$15	110d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$367	110d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$348	110d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY No	99¢	$14	110d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$348	111d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	99¢	$350	120d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.93 · official $4.93 (match) · 58 history records