Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:44:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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19 0x1976…9c89 crypto 1438 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,204 (-11%) realized −$2,667 · open −$537
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate71%1021W / 413L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$72
14 days−$708
30 days−$825
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$1,244
other 16% −$851
sports 9% −$141
world 1% −$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -34.1% -40.4% 34% 29% -7.7%
≤30d 458 -4.9% -13.9% 74% 35% -16.2%
≤90d 1434 -4.7% -13.8% 71% 35% -15.4%
all 1434 -4.7% -13.8% 71% 35% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 35% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 17% -23.5%
15% -29.6% 9% -30.9%
20% -36.5% 6% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$16 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized−$2,667
Unrealized−$537
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1021 / 413
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1434 / 1438
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1434 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 24¢ $300 $136 −$164 (-55%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 48¢ $30 $71 +$41 (+138%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $215 $0 −$215 (-100%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$66 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$9 +176%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$210 +206%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $431 +$152 +35%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $405 +$243 +60%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $704 +$181 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $254 −$202 -80%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$11 -52%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$226 +112%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$18 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 06 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 06 $921 −$839 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 06 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $21 +$6 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $34 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 7h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 8h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.75 · official $207.75 (match) · 3500 history records