Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:51:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

19 0x1978…8d71 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$32 (+1%) realized −$187 · open +$219

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate83%5W / 1L

Drawdown94%max

Avg bet$566per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Fees−$23est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1,219now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-13.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-4.1%	-13.3%	83%	50%	-8.4%
≤30d	6	-4.1%	-13.3%	83%	50%	-8.4%
≤90d	6	-4.1%	-13.3%	83%	50%	-8.4%
all	6	-4.1%	-13.3%	83%	50%	-8.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.3%	50%	-8.4%
10%	-21.6%	17%	-17.2%
15%	-29.1%	0%	-25.2%
20%	-36.1%	0%	-32.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

40% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$74 vs −$333 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.11 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,219

Realized−$187

Unrealized+$219

Win rate (resolved)83%

Wins / losses5 / 1

Est. fees paid−$23

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$566

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown94%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
ITF Kayseri: Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine vs Keshav Chopra	Keshav Chopra	82¢	100¢	$1,000	$1,219	+$219 (+22%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Andrea De Marchi vs Giannicola Misasi	Jun 27	$500	+$14	+3%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka	Jun 27	$341	−$333	-98%
ITF Kayseri: Jana Hossam Salah vs Duru Soke	Jun 27	$114	+$16	+14%
Piracicaba: Lucas Da Silva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild	Jun 26	$502	+$73	+14%
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov	Jun 26	$504	+$172	+34%
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida	Jun 26	$993	+$94	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
ITF Kayseri: Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine vs Keshav Chopra	BUY Keshav Chopra	82¢	$1,005	49m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Andrea De Marchi vs Giannicola Misasi	SELL Andrea De Marchi	100¢	$514	52m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Andrea De Marchi vs Giannicola Misasi	BUY Andrea De Marchi	97¢	$500	1h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka	BUY Naomi Osaka	23¢	$341	2h
ITF Kayseri: Jana Hossam Salah vs Duru Soke	SELL Duru Soke	100¢	$130	2h
ITF Kayseri: Jana Hossam Salah vs Duru Soke	BUY Duru Soke	87¢	$114	3h
Piracicaba: Lucas Da Silva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild	BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild	87¢	$502	18h
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov	BUY Sandro Kopp	74¢	$504	19h
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida	SELL Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida	100¢	$1,087	19h
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida	BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida	91¢	$993	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,219.27 · official $1,195.48 · 12 history records