Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x197d…14b5 sports 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$739 (-32%) realized −$732 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%19W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$125
14 days−$765
30 days−$765
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$506
other 15% −$83
world 7% −$173
finance 0% −$10
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +19.4% +8.1% 26% 26% +6.5%
≤30d 78 +14.6% +3.7% 24% 24% -45.9%
≤90d 78 +14.6% +3.7% 24% 24% -45.9%
all 78 +14.6% +3.7% 24% 24% -45.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 24% -45.9%
10% -6.2% 24% -51.1%
15% -15.3% 24% -55.8%
20% -23.6% 21% -60.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$27 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$383
Realized−$732
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses19 / 59
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions17
Markets (closed)78 / 95
History coverage232d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jordan 62¢ 62¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 45¢ 44¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 47¢ 44¢ $23 $21 −$1 (-5%)
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 36¢ 36¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 21¢ 19¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Senegal 78¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $14 −$14 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 +$12 +114%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $12 +$7 +57%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 +$16 +388%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $16 +$12 +73%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 21 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 +$31 +874%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $28 +$14 +48%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $7 +$3 +44%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $14 +$8 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $11 +$4 +42%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $14 −$14 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $28 −$28 -98%
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 20 $4 −$3 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$30 +291%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$90 +874%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$115 +1116%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $54 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $8 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $83 1h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 62¢ $80 1h
France vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 2h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $12 2h
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $20 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 45¢ $23 2h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $23 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $8 7h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 63¢ $12 7h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 78¢ $10 7h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $8 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $14 7h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 30h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 30h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 66¢ $14 30h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 30h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 63¢ $12 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 30h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 30h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $16 30h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 30h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 30h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $14 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.88 · official $383.93 (match) · 162 history records