Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
19 0x1982…bc7b sports 1086 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,062 (+8%) realized +$5,072 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate64%697W / 387L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Fees−$1,003est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$0
14 days+$1,416
30 days+$3,281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$2,059
other 4% +$767
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 45% -9.4%
≤30d 393 +8.7% -1.7% 45% 45% -2.5%
≤90d 1084 +3.0% -6.8% 64% 32% -7.1%
all 1084 +3.0% -6.8% 64% 32% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 32% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 29% -16.0%
15% -23.8% 25% -24.1%
20% -31.3% 21% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$58 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$5,072
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses697 / 387
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,003
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1084 / 1086
History coverage74d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1084 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) Flame Team 54¢ 50¢ $102 $96 −$7 (-7%)
Will the match end in a draw? No 90¢ 70¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 230 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 +$7 +107%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $108 +$69 +64%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $18 +$7 +40%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $58 −$10 -17%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $32 +$44 +141%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $23 −$23 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $47 +$5 +11%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $38 +$22 +57%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $84 −$49 -59%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $117 −$115 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 16 $175 +$25 +14%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $19 +$5 +29%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 16 $69 −$10 -14%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $22 −$12 -52%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $21 +$80 +388%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $11 +$24 +226%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 15 $23 −$1 -3%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$17 -33%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$14 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $13 +$46 +344%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$13 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $112 +$93 +83%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $20 +$73 +365%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $56 +$44 +79%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $18 −$17 -97%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $109 +$62 +57%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $383 −$376 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $491 −$5 -1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $251 −$246 -98%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 13 $13 +$22 +165%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 13 $153 +$99 +64%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs FURIA Esports (BO1) - South America League S Jun 13 $51 +$22 +43%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $678 −$520 -77%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $186 +$151 +81%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $16 +$22 +138%
Rainbow Six Siege: Black Dragons e-Sports vs Fluxo W7M (BO1) - South A Jun 13 $195 +$41 +21%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $11 +$3 +28%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $21 −$21 -99%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $265 −$263 -99%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen - Map 3 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $14 8m
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) BUY 4ikibamboni 38¢ $74 26m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 49¢ $2 40m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 47¢ $5 40m
Will the match end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $14 1h
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) BUY Flame Team 54¢ $104 1h
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) BUY Flame Team 53¢ $102 1h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner SELL ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $177 6h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg SELL ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $25 6h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner SELL ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $68 7h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 66¢ $8 7h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 71¢ $18 7h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 70¢ $39 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $76 7h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 63¢ $10 8h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 60¢ $31 8h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 60¢ $31 8h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 60¢ $31 8h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 38¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 40¢ $22 8h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 60¢ $5 8h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner BUY Gen.G Global Academy 64¢ $10 8h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $52 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner SELL Ivory 100¢ $60 8h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 14¢ $8 8h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 14¢ $8 8h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 13¢ $4 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $8 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ $2 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY Ivory 65¢ $20 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.14 · official $106.14 (match) · 2987 history records