Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1982…5ed8 sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$534 (-10%) realized −$547 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$268
7 days−$792
14 days−$579
30 days−$579
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$127
other 21% −$139
crypto 6% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -15.1% -23.2% 25% 25% -26.4%
≤30d 47 -8.5% -17.2% 28% 28% -20.1%
≤90d 47 -8.5% -17.2% 28% 28% -20.1%
all 47 -8.5% -17.2% 28% 28% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 28% -20.1%
10% -25.2% 28% -27.7%
15% -32.4% 28% -34.7%
20% -39.0% 26% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$199 vs −$93 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$547
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage10d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 30¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 21¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+110%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $100 −$3 -3%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $100 +$300 +300%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $46 +$46 +101%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $100 −$69 -69%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $100 −$58 -57%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $199 −$199 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $97 +$416 +426%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 −$8 -8%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $204 +$99 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$314 +307%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 +$121 +119%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $100 −$2 -2%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 +$298 +291%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$243 +238%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 +$100 +100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $102 −$25 -25%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 +$155 +152%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$268 +262%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $100 36m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 10¢ $97 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $100 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 25¢ $1 14h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 25¢ $87 14h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 25¢ $12 14h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 17h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 50¢ $26 17h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 50¢ $19 17h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes $31 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $28 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $17 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $17 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 19h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $46 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $6 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $43 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $83 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes $46 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes $2 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes $1 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes $10 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.35 · official $122.36 (match) · 113 history records