Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
19 0x1984…264b other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$101 (+7%) realized +$117 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$539now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$123
other 49% −$127
world 1% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.1% -12.3% 40% 40% +10.8%
≤30d 15 -3.1% -12.3% 40% 40% +10.8%
≤90d 15 -3.1% -12.3% 40% 40% +10.8%
all 15 -3.1% -12.3% 40% 40% +10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 40% +10.8%
10% -20.7% 40% +0.2%
15% -28.4% 33% -9.5%
20% -35.4% 27% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$18 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$539
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)15 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-2%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 30¢ 29¢ $80 $77 −$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $20 +$97 +474%
Belgium to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 27 $111 +$29 +26%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $31 +$53 +172%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $101 +$50 +50%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $51 +$40 +79%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $8 +$4 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 76¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $82 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $81 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? AND Argentina to win the second half? BUY 49¢ $70 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 31¢ $153 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 65¢ $300 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 21h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 21h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 66¢ $101 21h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 21h
Belgium to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 79¢ $111 21h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 21h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 21h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 21h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 21h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 21h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 21h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 65¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $539.00 · official $1,004.11 · 42 history records