Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:47:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
19 0x1985…51ab sports 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$914 (+33%) realized +$914 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%81W / 53L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$240
14 days+$817
30 days+$888
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$614
other 40% +$264
world 2% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +12.6% +1.9% 57% 47% +5.9%
≤30d 134 +33.9% +21.2% 60% 56% +19.4%
≤90d 134 +33.9% +21.2% 60% 56% +19.4%
all 134 +33.9% +21.2% 60% 56% +19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.2% 56% +19.4%
10% ← realistic here +9.6% 41% +8.0%
15% -1.0% 31% -2.5%
20% -10.7% 24% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$5 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.33 per $1 lost it wins $4.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$914
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses81 / 53
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage15d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $31 +$12 +40%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $31 +$15 +49%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$23 +74%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 +$15 +50%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -34%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$20 -66%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? Jun 19 $31 +$9 +30%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 +$27 +88%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $22 +$15 +69%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 +$39 +128%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$4 +12%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$2 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 $0 -1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -4%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$11 +34%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$10 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$4 +13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 +$7 +22%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$4 +14%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $31 +$18 +60%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $31 −$1 -2%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $30 +$11 +35%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $31 +$6 +20%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $61 +$67 +109%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $31 +$27 +87%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Thor Akureyri win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$5 +17%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 −$5 -17%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $31 −$11 -35%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 −$2 -6%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$4 -12%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $31 −$21 -69%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 $0 -1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +10%
Spread: CD Ñublense (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 +$1 +4%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 +$2 +7%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $31 +$31 +100%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $31 +$17 +55%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $30 −$3 -8%
Will Derry City FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 +$6 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 29¢ $38 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $46 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 31¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $31 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $31 1h
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 90¢ $53 3h
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $46 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 20h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 21h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 21h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 21h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 21h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 21h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $6 42h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $33 42h
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $31 42h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 84¢ $58 45h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 45h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 46h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 21¢ $32 46h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 46h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 28¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 28¢ $43 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL No 91¢ $34 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $31 2d
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 362 history records