Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1986…2766 sports 221 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$24 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%90W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$63
14 days−$53
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$51
other 39% −$62
world 1% −$17
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -36.9% -42.9% 27% 27% -26.8%
≤30d 96 +2.2% -7.6% 44% 40% -4.8%
≤90d 209 -3.9% -13.1% 40% 35% -11.8%
all 219 -1.8% -11.2% 41% 37% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 37% -10.3%
10% -19.7% 36% -18.9%
15% -27.4% 34% -26.7%
20% -34.5% 31% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses90 / 129
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)219 / 221
History coverage94d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 55¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 −$6 -6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $6 −$4 -62%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $8 +$6 +74%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 +$3 +65%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $30 +$22 +73%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $12 −$4 -35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$10 +50%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 $0 -1%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$3 -26%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $11 +$12 +109%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +43%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $7 −$1 -8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 +$5 +43%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 +$4 +78%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 +$3 +59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$1 -20%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 $0 -5%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $4 $0 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$10 +69%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $6 +$13 +213%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +11%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$16 +65%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $36 −$10 -28%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $25 2h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $95 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 23¢ $2 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $14 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $8 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $0 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 4d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $53 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 35¢ $8 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $12 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $30 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $10 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $7 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 6d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 6d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $11 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.39 · official $49.39 (match) · 510 history records